Continuing Growth and Unparalleled Innovation

Bay Area Economic Profile, Tenth in a Series


自20世纪70年代以来,拥有9个县的旧金山硅谷湾区一直是国际创新经济的中心, one of the nation’s most resilient regions for the past fifty years, and the fertile ground on which Apple, Facebook, Google, 还有一些公司在过去的十年里已经成长为全球市值最高的公司. Even though these economic success trajectories have been almost unprecedented, the Bay Area economy is still currently on the upswing, rather than having reached a peak or started a decline. Much of the growth has occurred in clusters of highly-productive industries. These have thrived due to factors such as the Bay Area’s unparalleled workforce, world-class higher education system, premier startup ecosystem, 以及该地区密集的风险资本创造的几乎无限的机会,这些风险资本为广泛的成熟和新兴行业的创新提供了资金.

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Predicting an impending end to this historic run has become a cottage industry, and certainly the Bay Area’s ongoing economic success cannot be taken for granted. For all of its advantages, 旧金山湾区并没有受到国家和国际经济周期的影响. In fact, 历史上,与美国其他地区相比,该地区的经济周期有更高的高峰和更低的低谷. Most notably, 在本世纪初的网络泡沫破灭之后,该地区的经济不得不进行自我改造. 目前对该地区持续繁荣的最大威胁来自华盛顿, DC, 一系列的政策选择正在破坏国际经济合作以及促进湾区经济发展的人员和思想交流. These concerns are real, but the doomsayers focus too often on the dark clouds on the horizon, rather than on the green shoots coming out of the ground all around them.

A perfect encapsulation of this dynamic occurred when Charles Schwab, the legendary founder of the San Francisco-grown brokerage, 2018年5月中旬警告称,由于联邦立法取消了州税和地方税的扣减,人们和公司正在逃离该州. 这一政策选择将对湾区的高收入者产生巨大影响, 而施瓦布创办的公司就是最近将许多工作岗位转移到其他州的一个例子. Just two weeks earlier, however, 嘉信理财公司(Charles Schwab Corporation)宣布,它选择旧金山作为其新数字加速器的两个地点之一,这些加速器与数百个高薪职位和一个重大的新房地产足迹有关. 尽管联邦税收改革方案无疑会对该地区的高收入者产生影响, it is also providing a tremendous windfall to Bay-Area-based companies. 这些公司正利用节省下来的资金在该地区进行大规模的人事和房地产投资. 其中最重要的是谷歌计划在圣何塞建立一个以交通为导向的校园, the leasing of an entire 43-story office tower in San Francisco by Facebook, and the creation of a spectacular new “spaceship” campus in Cupertino by Apple. And such growth is fanning out across the region, 起重机挤满了奥克兰的天空,这里正经历着自上世纪90年代以来住宅和商业开发的最大高潮.

关于高收入者和高生产率公司正在逃离该地区的神话,在很长一段时间里完全是错误的,更多人应该已经注意到了. In fact, 在旧金山湾区经济增长速度超过所有国内竞争对手的时期, 旧金山湾区和加利福尼亚州一直是高收入个人的净进口国. 利润较低的行业以及工资较低的工人面临着挑战。这些工人要么离开加州,要么从更广阔的北加州巨区(包括萨克拉门托和蒙特利地区以及圣华金河谷)出发,通勤距离越来越远.

But in spite of being home to the spectacular economic engine of the Bay Area, 加州的实际贫困率和儿童贫困率也是全国最高的. 许多旧金山湾区的居民都负担着住房成本,无家可归者也在增加. What is often missed, however, 是住房成本和无家可归者在美国各地都在上升吗, not all of which are nearly as economically successful as the Bay Area. What makes the Bay Area different, therefore, is not its challenges, but the resources and innovative minds that it can bring to bear to address them.

As private- and public-sector leaders make economic and policy decisions, 他们必须从尽可能好的客观分析中获得信息,避免将自己与湾区等文化意义重大、经济成功的地理区域联系在一起的许多神话. This report endeavors to provide just such data and analysis. 书的第一章列出了这个强劲、高产的地区经济的顶级经济数据. 第二章深入探讨了旧金山-硅谷湾区创新经济的具体资产和优势. 第三章详细阐述了我国区域经济面临的一些挑战,从住房、交通到人类福祉. And the final chapter expands the focus to the Northern California Megaregion, 日益成为国内交通运输和货物运输的相关经济单位的区域, as well as international economic competition.


本经济概况报告由湾区委员会沙巴体育线上官网与麦肯锡公司合作编写. It is the product of extensive analysis by the McKinsey team, research and writing by the Economic Institute, and input from regional leaders. 在Joyce Chai的支持下,Kausik Rajgopal和Kunal Modi领导了麦肯锡的工作, Enrique Camacho, and Luci Fonseca. Micah Weinberg和Sean Randolph领导了一个包括Jeff Bellisario在内的研究所团队, Alice Bishop, Patrick Kallerman, and Estevan Lopez.

The Economic Institute would like to thank PwC, Wells Fargo, San Mateo County Economic Development Association, and North Bay Leadership Council for their support of this project.

Chapter 1

A Regional Economy That Is Still Strong and Growing


Chapter 2

Innovation Spreads Across All Industries


Chapter 3

The Consequences of Growing and Not Growing


Chapter 4

The Northern California Megaregion

这些展品从第四章开始,将焦点扩展到北加州巨区, 日益成为国内交通运输和货物运输的相关经济单位的区域, as well as international economic competition.